STOIC AI STRATEGY
Superforecaster — adaptive long/short crypto strategy
Superforecaster runs two books at once: long positions in assets that have fallen far enough to revert, and short positions in assets whose weakness has persisted. Which book carries the portfolio shifts with the market rather than being fixed in advance.
- Annualised return
- 58.33%Since Jan 2021 · includes backtest
- Annualised, live only
- 27.9%Since Apr 2025
- Max Drawdown
- 16.71%Measured on the daily equity curve
- Sharpe Ratio
- 2.54USDT denomination
Live since April 2025; figures before that date are backtested. Available by request only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Two books, one portfolio
The long book buys assets that have sold off far enough to revert toward their mean. The short book sells assets that keep underperforming the market. Because the two are driven by different conditions, the portfolio has something to earn from in a rising market and in a falling one.
No losing 12-month period
Across every rolling year since January 2021, the weakest returned +8.6%.
Volatility-scaled sizing
Position sizes are set by an automated risk system that scales exposure to current market volatility, and no single asset may take more than 3% of the portfolio.
Non-custodial
Your capital stays in your own exchange account. Stoic connects through API keys that carry no withdrawal rights and never takes custody of client assets.
Investment process
How Superforecaster picks what to hold and what to sell
The strategy is built on two complementary approaches that profit under different market conditions. Exact parameters stay undisclosed; what follows is how each side of the book is put together.
Performance
Parameters — Superforecaster USDT
- USDT Base Currency
- 2.54 Sharpe Ratio
- 2.83 Calmar Ratio
- 3.94% Avg Monthly Gains
- 16.71% Max Drawdown
- 55.92% Profitable days %
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27.49% | 19.66% | 22.85% | 5.71% | 3.34% | 3.16% | 10.76% | 13.89% | -4.14% | 11.11% | 7.60% | 1.07% | 208.61% |
| 2022 | 2.12% | 1.82% | 6.49% | 8.19% | 27.41% | 11.70% | 0.35% | 7.50% | 4.52% | 2.61% | 4.37% | 0.95% | 107.83% |
| 2023 | 0.35% | 9.52% | -2.65% | -1.37% | -1.90% | 2.25% | -4.69% | 4.85% | 3.77% | 0.35% | 3.09% | 2.97% | 16.94% |
| 2024 | 0.72% | 7.29% | 3.21% | -1.46% | 1.61% | 0.77% | -2.28% | 3.27% | 3.54% | 2.81% | 2.92% | 1.78% | 26.63% |
| 2025 | 3.60% | 0.78% | -6.26% | 2.24% | -3.22% | 0.74% | 10.37% | 4.59% | 2.30% | -9.99% | 9.41% | 2.88% | 16.75% |
| 2026 | 5.85% | -6.63% | 1.46% | 15.54% | 4.13% | -7.72% | 4.60% | 16.47% |
Parameters — Superforecaster BTC
- BTC Base Currency
- 2.35 Sharpe Ratio
- 2.54 Calmar Ratio
- 3.64% Avg Monthly Gains
- 17.19% Max Drawdown
- 55.42% Profitable days %
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27.08% | 19.27% | 22.45% | 5.38% | 3.01% | 2.85% | 10.41% | 13.51% | -4.43% | 10.76% | 7.27% | 0.76% | 197.10% |
| 2022 | 1.81% | 1.53% | 6.13% | 7.86% | 26.97% | 11.35% | 0.03% | 7.19% | 4.21% | 2.32% | 4.03% | 0.68% | 100.32% |
| 2023 | 0.04% | 9.20% | -2.94% | -1.63% | -2.18% | 1.97% | -4.94% | 4.52% | 3.48% | 0.05% | 2.78% | 2.67% | 12.93% |
| 2024 | 0.43% | 6.99% | 2.90% | -1.72% | 1.30% | 0.49% | -2.58% | 2.96% | 3.23% | 2.49% | 2.61% | 1.48% | 22.24% |
| 2025 | 3.30% | 0.51% | -6.54% | 1.96% | -3.56% | 0.40% | 9.54% | 4.02% | 1.64% | -10.18% | 9.41% | 2.73% | 12.01% |
| 2026 | 5.37% | -6.57% | 1.56% | 15.74% | 3.89% | -7.90% | 4.01% | 15.16% |
Strategy terms and parameters
- 1 Strategy type Adaptive long/short — mean-reversion longs and momentum-based shorts
- 2 Live since April 2025
- 3 Denominations USDT or BTC
- 4 Universe Liquid digital assets, traded both long and short
- 5 Position limits 3% per asset; position sizes scaled to market volatility
- 6 Monitoring 24/7 portfolio monitoring in the app, with market updates
- 7 Minimum to start $5,000
- 8 Leverage 0.5x to 3x on request, depending on your risk preference
- 9 Capacity Almost unlimited; top up and withdraw at any time
- 10 Custody Funds stay in your own exchange account, connected via API keys without withdrawal rights Superforecaster is not available in self-service. Specifications reflect the strategy as described in its monthly fact sheet, and limits are targets applied by the risk system rather than guarantees.
Risk framework
How Superforecaster manages risk
An adaptive long/short book carries concentration risk and volatility risk. Both are capped by the system rather than by judgement, so a single asset or a sudden change in conditions cannot dominate the outcome.
FAQ
Superforecaster questions, answered
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Superforecaster is an automated long/short crypto strategy built on two complementary approaches. It takes long positions in assets that have temporarily become oversold and are likely to revert toward their mean, and short positions in assets that have been underperforming the market and are likely to keep doing so. Running both at once lets the portfolio earn under different market conditions.
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Superforecaster is not available in the app's self-service plans. Access is arranged individually through the Stoic AI wealth management desk: leave a work email on this page and a member of the team will follow up with the materials and the terms.
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They run the same logic and differ in what your balance is measured in. The USDT version is denominated in dollars, so its result is the strategy's return on its own. The BTC version keeps constant exposure to Bitcoin's price and adds the strategy's gains on top of it, which suits holders who want to stay in BTC while their position works.
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Superforecaster has been live since April 2025. Results shown for periods before that date come from backtests, and the performance chart on this page marks the boundary between the two so the live record can be read on its own.
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The minimum is $5,000. Capacity beyond that is almost unlimited, and you can top up or withdraw at any time.
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Leverage from 0.5x to 3x is available on request, depending on your risk preference. It is set when access is arranged rather than toggled in the app, and the figures published on this page are unleveraged.
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An automated risk control system adjusts position sizes dynamically based on current market volatility, cutting exposure as conditions get rougher. On top of that, the maximum position in any single asset is capped at 3% of the portfolio, so the result is spread across many independent positions rather than concentrated in a few.
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The short book is what the strategy has for a falling market: assets that keep underperforming are sold rather than avoided. That does not make a losing month impossible, and the monthly table on this page shows the ones that occurred. What it does mean is that a general decline in prices is not by itself the reason a month goes negative.
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Meta is not one strategy but a composite: more than 200 sub-strategies run inside it at the same time, and their long and short positions are sized to offset each other so that market direction drops out. Superforecaster is one of those sub-strategies, made available on its own. Taken separately it delivers its own full result instead of a share in a blended portfolio, which means a higher return and a wider drawdown, without the smoothing the other sub-strategies provide inside Meta. Meta is available in the app, while access to Superforecaster is arranged through the desk.
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Your funds stay in your own exchange account. Stoic connects through API keys that permit trading but not withdrawals, so no one at Stoic can move your money out — only you can deposit or withdraw.
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No. The strategy is fully automated: positions are opened, sized and closed by the system with no setup on your side. The app gives you 24/7 visibility into the portfolio along with market updates.
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Every figure here is taken from the monthly Superforecaster fact sheet, and the chart is compounded from the same monthly returns the table below it shows. The fact sheet is republished each month, and this page is updated in the same batch.
Keep reading
What sits beside Superforecaster
The strategies available in the app, the desk that arranges access to this one, and the documents behind the numbers.
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