Report. Collective Intelligence analysis: Brexit

The latest report from Cindicator Analytics explores one of the world’s most debated political events: the UK Withdrawal from the European Union, also known as Brexit.

To gauge the sentiment of top financial analysts registered on Cindicator’s Collective Intelligence platform and analyse any potential effects Brexit might have on cryptocurrency prices and digital asset regulations, the Cindicator team asked a series of open questions as well as some binary questions over the course of the last few weeks.

Key findings about Brexit and cryptocurrencies

The study showed that analysts remain somewhat optimistic about the state of digital asset markets in the midst of Brexit and a slowing global economy. About 62% of financial analysts believe that Brexit will have a positive impact on cryptocurrency prices.

In terms of their investment strategies in response to higher uncertainty, around 74% of analysts are considering holding cryptocurrency in their portfolios, along with other assets such as commodities, stocks and cash.

Brexit could have many different implications for the regulatory landscape of digital assets. The optimists (44%) believe that a post-Brexit Britain could be inclined to take a progressive stance towards cryptocurrency regulation and enable blockchain innovations, which would increase the adoption rate of the technology.

Only a small group of analysts (9%) believe that the UK would adopt an unfavourable approach towards regulating cryptocurrency.

Brexit scenario probabilities

On 14 March, based on responses from decentralised analysts, Cindicator’s Hybrid Intelligence estimated the likelihood of different Brexit scenarios:

• 19.10% chance that a negotiated deal between the UK and the EU would be in place by 29 March;
• 22.50% chance that a no deal Brexit will happen by 29 March;
• 82.75% chance that the deadline of Article 50 would be extended (this has already proven to be accurate);
• 69.58% probability that a second referendum will be passed in parliament by 29 June.

The full 24-page report on Brexit includes:

• Brief background on Brexit, including the timeline and key dates;
• Review of possible Brexit scenarios, including probability estimates;
• Economic impact summary;
• Impact on cryptocurrency prices;
• Views on blockchain and digital assets regulation in the UK;
• Investment ideas for rising uncertainty.