Report. Collective Crypto Mood Swings

Report. Collective Crypto Mood Swings

Cryptocurrency markets change at a dizzying speed, faster than other financial markets. Cindicator’s researchers looked into forecasts by decentralized analysts on our collective intelligence platform.

Over a nine-month period starting in September 2017 through May 2018, Cindicator analysts answered questions about the asset prices of Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and over a dozen altcoins. Cindicator’s internal team of professional financial analysts and data scientists used this data to explore how the crypto crowd is adjusting to movements within the crypto market.

The key findings include:

Investors need two months to adjust to new trends in crypto markets:

  • In January and February the collective mood was bullish, expecting growth despite the downward trend;
  • The mood adjusted only in March, after the market cap declined from the January high of $835 billion to below $300 billion in February;
  • This fits with other asset classes: it takes 60-100 days to adapt to a new long-term trend.

The public view on ETH is strongly polarised:

  • The collective mood was very divided in March, when ETH dropped by more than 50% in USD terms;
  • It appears that higher volatility leads to greater mood swings.

The public mood after Consensus 2018 became slightly more pessimistic. It appears that expectations of a post-Consensus upswing were not met. The market was waiting for strong positive news, yet there was none.