Bitcoin predictions 2020: experts vs Hybrid Intelligence

Every year, experts compete in trying to predict the (almost) unpredictable: crypto prices. At Cindicator, we have collected forecasts from top VCs, investors and executives, turning them into questions on Cindicator’s Collective Intelligence platform. In this blog post, we’ll compare Bitcoin predictions from experts with those of our decentralised community of analysts.

What is Cindicator?

In case you’re new to this blog, Cindicator has a community of 140,000 registered analysts who make forecasts for crypto and traditional markets by answering questions in the Cindicator app.

After the forecasts are collected, machine learning algorithms allocate different weightings to each forecast, taking into account each analyst’s track record and other factors.

The final indicators estimate the probability of a given event as a number between 0 (the event will not happen) and 100 (it will certainly happen). Regular indicators are sent to holders of CND tokens. The indicators in this post are experimental so we’re sharing them with everybody.

We call this ‘Hybrid Intelligence’ as it combines the best of human and machine intelligence.

Let’s turn to the predictions.

Bitcoin price low in 2020: prediction

Everybody wants to buy the dip, yet catching the bottom is hard. Naturally, therefore, many traders look at previous lows as a possible support level (this is known as anchoring bias).

Yele Bademosi, Director at Binance Labs, believes that the lowest price of BTC in 2020 will be higher than the yearly low of 2019 (~$3,300) as noted in his prediction for Token Daily’s Crystal Ball.

We turned this into the following question:

Will the lowest price of Bitcoin in 2020 be HIGHER than the yearly low of 2019 (~$3,300)?

Hybrid Intelligence strongly agrees with this: 94.45%.

Next target: $12,000

In the first two months of 2020, we haven’t seen BTC’s price go lower than $6,800, or nearly double last year’s lows.

So what’s the next target?

Michael Novogratz, former hedge fund manager and now CEO of Galaxy Digital, predicted on Twitter that Bitcoin will finish 2020 at over $12,000. Compared to his previous forecasts, this is very cautious.

The question on the Cindicator platform:

Will Bitcoin’s price reach $12,000 in 2020?

Hybrid Intelligence estimated this probability as very high: 99.8%.

New BTC all-time high in 2020?

Of course, investors also want to know when to sell the top. Will we see a new record price this year? And if so, at what level? Let’s compare the predictions.

Blockchain Capital noted in their annual State of Crypto report that this year Bitcoin’s price will “blow past its all-time high” (i.e. $20,000).

Venture capitalists at Maven 11 also listed Bitcoin’s new all-time high among their ten predictions for 2020.

This is echoed by Ryan Selkis, Co-founder & CEO of Messari and former Managing Director at Coindesk. In Messari’s extremely extensive crypto theses for 2020, he outlined his expectation that Bitcoin will hit a new high before we go macro “risk-off” again.  

Will Bitcoin’s price exceed its all-time high ($20,000) in 2020?

Hybrid Intelligence indicator: 44.2%. This is an uncertain indicator, suggesting that it’s rather unlikely.

The Spartan Group, a crypto hedge fund founded by veterans from Goldman Sachs, believes that BTC will hit $40,000 in 2020.

Will Bitcoin’s price reach $40,000 in 2020?

Hybrid Intelligence indicator: 27.45%. This means that analysts think it’s unlikely BTC will reach this price.

Bold predictions: $100k and $250k

Now we’re turning to super bulls who believe we’ll see not just all-time highs, but six figures for Bitcoin.

Ross Ulrich, the convicted creator of the Silk Road darknet marketplace, believes $100,000 is possible as explained in his posts on Medium.

Will Bitcoin’s price reach $100,000 in 2020?

Hybrid Intelligence indicator: 7.8%. This means the vast majority of analysts think it’s unlikely that we’ll see this level.

Tim Draper, a billionaire venture capitalist, has the most ambitious forecast on our list. He said BTC should hit $250,000 in 6–12 months after the halving event in May.

Of course, that means that this level might not happen until May 2021, but we’ve tweaked this slightly for consistency:

Will Bitcoin’s price reach $250,000 in 2020?

Hybrid Intelligence indicator: 5.5%. Extremely unlikely.

Your turn: forecasting the market

Forecasting is hard. And the most difficult part is being accountable and learning from your mistakes. Making public predictions is one way.

One alternative is to forecast with the Cindicator app – you might even win crypto if you’re right! And there’s nothing to lose.

If you’re already good at forecasting the market and want an edge for your trading strategies, check out Cindicator’s Hybrid Intelligence indicators for CND holders. You can read more about Cindicator’s accuracy here (~60% for the past 5 quarters).

Finally, if you want investment exposure to crypto without investing your own time, Cindicator Capital’s strategies may be of interest.